FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE

Economics

This research employs monthly time series data on TB notifications at Silobela District Hospital (SDH) from January 2014 to December 2018; to forecast TB notifications using SARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that the TB notifications series is I (0). Based on the AIC, the study presents the special SARIMA model, the SARMA (1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1) 12 model. Diagnostic tests further reveal that this model is stable and hence suitable for forecasting the TB notifications at SDH. The chosen parsimonious model shows that TB notifications will generally decline over the out-of-sample period, but it remains worrisome to note that this anticipated decline in TB notifications will not be as fast as it should be. The main policy direction emanating from this study is that there should be serious intensification of TB surveillance and control programmes in Silobela district in to order to reduce TB incidences not only in the Silobela community but also in Zimbabwe at large.

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