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Title: :  FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE
PaperId: :  11143
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 5 Issue 6 2019
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-11143
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
Forecasting, TB, TB Notifications
This research employs monthly time series data on TB notifications at Silobela District Hospital (SDH) from January 2014 to December 2018; to forecast TB notifications using SARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that the TB notifications series is I (0). Based on the AIC, the study presents the special SARIMA model, the SARMA (1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1) 12 model. Diagnostic tests further reveal that this model is stable and hence suitable for forecasting the TB notifications at SDH. The chosen parsimonious model shows that TB notifications will generally decline over the out-of-sample period, but it remains worrisome to note that this anticipated decline in TB notifications will not be as fast as it should be. The main policy direction emanating from this study is that there should be serious intensification of TB surveillance and control programmes in Silobela district in to order to reduce TB incidences not only in the Silobela community but also in Zimbabwe at large.

Citations

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 5 Issue 6 2019 Page 1461-1471
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 5.6(2019) : 1461-1471.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2019). FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 5(6), 1461-1471.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 5, no. 6 (2019) : 1461-1471.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. 'FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 5, no. 6, 2019, p. 1461-1471. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_TB_NOTIFICATIONS_AT_SILOBELA_DISTRICT_HOSPITAL___ZIMBABWE_ijariie11143.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. (2019) 'FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 5(6), pp. 1461-1471IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_TB_NOTIFICATIONS_AT_SILOBELA_DISTRICT_HOSPITAL___ZIMBABWE_ijariie11143.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI, "FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 1461-1471, Nov-Dec 2019. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_TB_NOTIFICATIONS_AT_SILOBELA_DISTRICT_HOSPITAL___ZIMBABWE_ijariie11143.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 5 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. FORECASTING TB NOTIFICATIONS AT SILOBELA DISTRICT HOSPITAL, ZIMBABWE. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2019 [Cited : ]; 5(6) : 1461-1471. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_TB_NOTIFICATIONS_AT_SILOBELA_DISTRICT_HOSPITAL___ZIMBABWE_ijariie11143.pdf
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