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Title: :  FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13279
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13279
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
Pakistan continues to be severely affected by COVID-19 and the situation is even worse given the fact that the country already has a fragile healthcare system alongside perennial economic and political instability. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to forecast the future trend of COVID case volumes in Pakistan. The employed data covers the period February 25, 2020 to October 31, 2020 while the out-of-sample period ranges over the period November 2020 to April 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is very stable and quite acceptable in forecasting COVID-19 infections in the country. The study suggests that the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is likely to follow a downwards trend over the out-of sample period, characterized by an equilibrium level of approximately 227 cases per day. The government of Pakistan is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on the prevention and control of the pandemic and also people in the country are advised to continue behaving in a responsible manner with regards to face-mask wearing and following all sanitary rules put forward by WHO.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 1642-1655
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 1642-1655.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 1642-1655.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 1642-1655.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 1642-1655. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_PAKISTAN_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13279.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 1642-1655IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_PAKISTAN_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13279.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 1642-1655, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_PAKISTAN_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13279.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN PAKISTAN USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 1642-1655. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_PAKISTAN_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13279.pdf
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