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Title: :  PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13286
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13286
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
The need for forecasting the future trend of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now, especially considering the fact there is no effective vaccine yet developed. Forecasting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Romania, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Romania. The employed data covers the period 26 February 2020 to 31 October 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period November 2020 to April 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 cases are likely to reach a stable equilibrium level of approximately 6595 new cases per day, somewhere around 18 December 2020. Cleary, the pandemic is far from ending in Romania. There is serious need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country. The public is also urged to strictly exercise caution all the time and strictly adhere to sanitary rules established by WHO, in order to win the war against this deadly scourge.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 1730-1741
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 1730-1741.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 1730-1741.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 1730-1741.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 1730-1741. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_NEW_COVID_19_DAILY_CASES_IN_ROMANIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13286.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 1730-1741IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_NEW_COVID_19_DAILY_CASES_IN_ROMANIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13286.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 1730-1741, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_NEW_COVID_19_DAILY_CASES_IN_ROMANIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13286.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. PREDICTION OF NEW COVID-19 DAILY CASES IN ROMANIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 1730-1741. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_NEW_COVID_19_DAILY_CASES_IN_ROMANIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13286.pdf
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