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Title: :  PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13296
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13296
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
Time series forecasting models are broadly classified into 2 groups; Linear and nonlinear models. Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models are linear models which are simple, easy to understand and popular in forecasting problems in various fields such as Medicine, Engineering, Agriculture and Economics. Examples of stochastic nonlinear models are the non-linear moving average model (NMA), ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH models. ARCH and GARCH models are popularly known for modeling volatility in financial time series. Machine learning methods have also been applied by many researchers and they have been found to be good in modeling complex data especially in Public health. Some of the methods include Artificial neural networks (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ensembles, Decision trees and Graphical Models (Bayesian Networks). In ANN model, appropriate selection of the number of inputs, hidden, output nodes and activation function are critical. In this study the ANN (12,12,1) model with the hyperbolic tangent function as the ideal activation function is applied, the findings of the study show that the daily new corona virus infections will be ranging from 75,000-80 000 cases from November 1,2020 to April 30 ,2021. However, daily new cases may go above 80,000 because of a negative shock from events associated with US elections. A significant drop in daily new cases is expected if an effective vaccine is availed early to the American people. The study recommends that the US government should tighten lockdown restrictions, enforce wearing of face masks, regular hand washing with soap or use of hand sanitizers, physical distancing, massive mobile testing, contact tracing, early treatment of cases and continuous education among communities.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 1856-1870
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 1856-1870.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 1856-1870.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 1856-1870.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 1856-1870. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_THE_UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13296.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 1856-1870IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_THE_UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13296.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 1856-1870, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_THE_UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13296.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 1856-1870. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_THE_UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13296.pdf
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