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Title: :  FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13298
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13298
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
Since December 2019, the whole world has been incrementally invaded and tormented by COVID-19. However, the African continent has been the last and least affected part of the world. Algeria is among the first African countries to be affected by the pandemic since February 2020. In this research article, the ANN technique was applied to analyze COVID-19 daily cases in Algeria. The employed data covers the period 25 February 2020 to 31 October 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period November 2020 to April 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model apparently tell us that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in the country. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 daily cases are likely to remain very high over the period November 2020 to April 2021 and even beyond. The predicted is reversible through vaccination or tightening-up COVID-19 prevention and control measures [suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO)] in the country. At the moment, there is no known effective vaccine against COVID-19, therefore, the Algeria health authorities, just like the rest of the world; are only left with the option of resorting to prevention and control measures such as social distancing, wearing of masks, travel restrictions, quarantine, isolation, testing and tracing and so on.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 1885-1898
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 1885-1898.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 1885-1898.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 1885-1898.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 1885-1898. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ALGERIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13298.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 1885-1898IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ALGERIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13298.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 1885-1898, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ALGERIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13298.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ALGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 1885-1898. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ALGERIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13298.pdf
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