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Title: :  PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13313
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13313
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
Modeling and forecasting methods are increasingly becoming very important in the field of Public Health. Different methods have been applied and these include ARIMA models, single equation models, exponential smoothing models, simultaneous equation models, VAR models, SEIR models and Machine learning methods. Machine learning methods are superior in the analysis of complex data hence most suitable in the field of Medicine which is usually characterized with huge and complex data sets. Algorithms for machine learning include Artificial neural networks (ANNs), Support vector Machine (SVM), Decision trees and Ensembles. In this study we choose to apply the ANN model (multilayer perceptron) because of its popularity and simplicity. ANN (12,12,1) model is used and the residual graph and model evaluation criteria (error, MSE, MAE) indicate that the model is stable and ideal for forecasting daily new coronavirus infections in Egypt. Study findings indicate that the projected daily new corona virus (covid-19) cases will sharply rise from November 1,2020(208 cases) to around 3December 2020(1536 cases) and then descend to equilibrium level of 1400 daily new infections until 30April 2021.However, if an effective COVID-19 vaccine (Positive shock) is made available in the out of sample period daily new cases will drop sharply. The study recommends continuous health education among communities, wearing of face masks, regular hand-washing, physical distancing, scaling up covid-19 PCR testing and tightening restrictions in covid -19 hot spot regions.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 2078-2090
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 2078-2090.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 2078-2090.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 2078-2090.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 2078-2090. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_EGYPT_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13313.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 2078-2090IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_EGYPT_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13313.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 2078-2090, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_EGYPT_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13313.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. PREDICTION OF DAILY NEW COVID-19 CASES IN EGYPT USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 2078-2090. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/PREDICTION_OF_DAILY_NEW_COVID_19_CASES_IN_EGYPT_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13313.pdf
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