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Title: :  FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PaperId: :  13314
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 6 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-13314
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Tatenda. A. CHIHOHOUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
ANN, COVID-19, Forecasting
Given that most Ethiopians live in crowded inter-generational households that usually lack running water and other basic sanitary facilities, COVID-19 has a potential to cause mayhem in the country. In this endeavor, the basic ANN technique is applied to analyze daily new COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia. The employed data covers the period 13 March 2020 to 31 October 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the next 6 months, starting from 1 November 2020. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (that is; Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable in forecasting daily new COVID-19 cases. The results of the study indicate that daily new COVID-19 cases are likely to continue declining over the period November 2020 to April 2021. This simply suggests that the current preventive and control measures for the pandemic such as quarantining, isolation, treatment, testing, tracing contacts, social distancing, regular and consistent washing of hands and so on; are really working for the Ethiopia. The people in the country are advised not be complacent but rather remain responsible and alert in order to avoid a possibility of a second wave of infections.

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 6 2020 Page 2091-2105
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.6(2020) : 2091-2105.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, & Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020). FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), 2091-2105.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 6 (2020) : 2091-2105.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, 2020, p. 2091-2105. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ETHIOPIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13314.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. (2020) 'FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(6), pp. 2091-2105IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ETHIOPIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13314.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO, "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 2091-2105, Nov-Dec 2020. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ETHIOPIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13314.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. "FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 6 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, and Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO. FORECASTING COVID-19 CASES IN ETHIOPIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(6) : 2091-2105. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/FORECASTING_COVID_19_CASES_IN_ETHIOPIA_USING_ARTIFICIAL_NEURAL_NETWORKS_ijariie13314.pdf
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