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Title: :  Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting
PaperId: :  25482
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 10 Issue 6 2024
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-25482
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Jeff Hardy B. RosalMisamis University
Demie S. Agum Jr.Misamis University
Jan Clyde O. VillavelezMisamis University
Florence Jean B. TalironganMisamis University
Rolysent K. ParedesMisamis University

Abstract

Economics Research
inflation, inflation rate, inflation trend, Philippines, commodity, ARIMA, forecast
Inflation is a sustained growth in general price levels triggered by demand-pull and cost-push factors, diminishes the purchasing power of money, impacts different economic sectors, and significantly affects household budgets and general economic stability. This study aims to analyze and forecast inflation trends in the Philippines and focuses on essential commodities using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The study uses historical data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) spanning 2014 to 2023, covering the following 12 key commodities: food and non-alcoholic beverages; alcoholic beverages and tobacco; clothing and footwear; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels; furnishing, household equipment, and routine household maintenance; health; transport; information and communication; recreation, sport, and culture; education services; restaurant and accommodation services; and personal care and miscellaneous goods and services. The ARIMA model forecasts the inflation rates in these commodities and predicts the trend over the next ten years while offering indications for analyzing the inflationary trends and their long-term projection. The results indicate that inflation affects different sectors in varying degrees, such as food and transport, which are experiencing significant fluctuations. Some commodity groups gradually stabilize while others remain uncertain, with food and transportation having the most significant fluctuation and notable inflation rate increase. Other sectors, including housing and utilities, remained uncertain, as inflation rates were expected to remain volatile. Other sectors were described to stabilize progressively, while services and nonessential goods followed the track of more predictable inflationary trends. The findings evidence-based strategies that policymakers may seek to mitigate the adverse impacts of inflation toward long-term economic resilience for Filipino households and businesses.

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IJARIIE Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. "Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 10 Issue 6 2024 Page 1572-1584
MLA Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. "Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 10.6(2024) : 1572-1584.
APA Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, & Rolysent K. Paredes. (2024). Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 10(6), 1572-1584.
Chicago Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. "Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 10, no. 6 (2024) : 1572-1584.
Oxford Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. 'Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 10, no. 6, 2024, p. 1572-1584. Available from IJARIIE, https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Analyzing_Inflation_Trends_in_Key_Commodities_in_the_Philippines__A_Study_Based_on_Bangko_Sentral_ng_Pilipinas_Data_Using_ARIMA_Forecasting_ijariie25482.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. (2024) 'Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 10(6), pp. 1572-1584IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Analyzing_Inflation_Trends_in_Key_Commodities_in_the_Philippines__A_Study_Based_on_Bangko_Sentral_ng_Pilipinas_Data_Using_ARIMA_Forecasting_ijariie25482.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes, "Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 1572-1584, Nov-Dec 2024. [Online]. Available: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Analyzing_Inflation_Trends_in_Key_Commodities_in_the_Philippines__A_Study_Based_on_Bangko_Sentral_ng_Pilipinas_Data_Using_ARIMA_Forecasting_ijariie25482.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. "Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 10 number 6 ().
Vancouver Jeff Hardy B. Rosal, Demie S. Agum Jr., Jan Clyde O. Villavelez, Florence Jean B. Talirongan, and Rolysent K. Paredes. Analyzing Inflation Trends in Key Commodities in the Philippines: A Study Based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Data Using ARIMA Forecasting. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2024 [Cited : ]; 10(6) : 1572-1584. Available from: https://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Analyzing_Inflation_Trends_in_Key_Commodities_in_the_Philippines__A_Study_Based_on_Bangko_Sentral_ng_Pilipinas_Data_Using_ARIMA_Forecasting_ijariie25482.pdf
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