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Title: :  BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES
PaperId: :  10820
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 5 Issue 5 2019
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-10820
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
RAKOTONIRINA Alain BarnabéED-STII
ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-ZoED-STII
ROBINSON MatioED-STII

Abstract

Computer Engineering
Phenomena multiple structures, point process, Bayesian Hierarchical models, Spatiotemporal, Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations
A good understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of complex phenomena and multiple structures (such as the occurrence of fires in the environmental field, epidemic disease in the field of health ...) is an important element for the risk management of these phenomena and the development of strategies. However, the data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneities among host classes and spatiotemporal processes. This article seeks to suggest or propose a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to modeling and mapping the relative risks of these phenomena in space and time. In this paper, we used spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models to study the relative risk patterns of these phenomena. The R-INLA method with R packages was used for simulations and parameter estimation. The most suitable model is selected using multiple validation criteria (DIC, WAIC, CPO, ...). Among the spatiotemporal models used, the Knorr-Held model with a type III and IV space-time interaction fits well with the data, but type IV seems better than type III. We begin with the introduction to explain the theoretical and problematic context of our work. Then, the spatiotemporal statistical models in the literature review, followed by the proposed methodology which is the Bayesian hierarchical models, followed by an application on the occurrence of fires in the Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP) and ends by conclusion and perspective.

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IJARIIE RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. "BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 5 Issue 5 2019 Page 128-143
MLA RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. "BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 5.5(2019) : 128-143.
APA RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, & ROBINSON Matio. (2019). BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 5(5), 128-143.
Chicago RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. "BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 5, no. 5 (2019) : 128-143.
Oxford RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. 'BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 5, no. 5, 2019, p. 128-143. Available from IJARIIE, http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/BAYESIAN_HIERARCHICAL_MODELS__MODELING_THE_SPATIOTEMPORAL_DISTRIBUTION_OF_THE_RISKS_OF_PHENOMENA_MULTIPLE_STRUCTURES_ijariie10820.pdf (Accessed : 10 December 2020).
Harvard RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. (2019) 'BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 5(5), pp. 128-143IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/BAYESIAN_HIERARCHICAL_MODELS__MODELING_THE_SPATIOTEMPORAL_DISTRIBUTION_OF_THE_RISKS_OF_PHENOMENA_MULTIPLE_STRUCTURES_ijariie10820.pdf (Accessed : 10 December 2020)
IEEE RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio, "BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 128-143, Sep-Oct 2019. [Online]. Available: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/BAYESIAN_HIERARCHICAL_MODELS__MODELING_THE_SPATIOTEMPORAL_DISTRIBUTION_OF_THE_RISKS_OF_PHENOMENA_MULTIPLE_STRUCTURES_ijariie10820.pdf [Accessed : 10 December 2020].
Turabian RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. "BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 5 number 5 (10 December 2020).
Vancouver RAKOTONIRINA Alain Barnabé, ANDRIAMANOHISOA Hery-Zo, and ROBINSON Matio. BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS: MODELING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISKS OF PHENOMENA MULTIPLE STRUCTURES. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2019 [Cited : 10 December 2020]; 5(5) : 128-143. Available from: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/BAYESIAN_HIERARCHICAL_MODELS__MODELING_THE_SPATIOTEMPORAL_DISTRIBUTION_OF_THE_RISKS_OF_PHENOMENA_MULTIPLE_STRUCTURES_ijariie10820.pdf
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