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Title: :  OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH
PaperId: :  12290
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 6 Issue 4 2020
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-12290
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Thabani NYONIUniversity of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Economics
Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Forecasting, Open Defecation
Surprisingly, in this 21st century, the practice of open defecation has continued unabated in Nigeria (Ngwu, 2017). In this study, which is the first of its kind in Nigeria, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied in analyzing open defecation. The data was collected from the online World Bank data base and covers the period 2000 – 2017. The out-of-sample forecasts cover the period 2018 – 2022. The diagnostics tests employed in this study show that the open defection series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The study finally presents the ARIMA (4, 1, 0) as the optimal model in forecasting the number of people practicing open defecation in Nigeria. The model, through the residual ADF tests, and the inverse roots of the AR/MA polynomials; has been shown to be quite stable and suitable for forecasting and control of open defecation in Nigeria. The results of the study indicate that by 2022 the number of open defecators will be approximately 17.8% of the total population. The study offers a two-fold policy recommendation for consideration by the government of Nigeria.

Citations

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IJARIIE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 6 Issue 4 2020 Page 577-586
MLA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6.4(2020) : 577-586.
APA Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2020). OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(4), 577-586.
Chicago Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 6, no. 4 (2020) : 577-586.
Oxford Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. 'OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 4, 2020, p. 577-586. Available from IJARIIE, http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/OPEN_DEFECATION_IN_NIGERIA__A_BOX_JENKINS_ARIMA_APPROACH_ijariie12290_converted.pdf (Accessed : ).
Harvard Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. (2020) 'OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 6(4), pp. 577-586IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/OPEN_DEFECATION_IN_NIGERIA__A_BOX_JENKINS_ARIMA_APPROACH_ijariie12290_converted.pdf (Accessed : )
IEEE Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI, "OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 577-586, Jul-Aug 2020. [Online]. Available: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/OPEN_DEFECATION_IN_NIGERIA__A_BOX_JENKINS_ARIMA_APPROACH_ijariie12290_converted.pdf [Accessed : ].
Turabian Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. "OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 6 number 4 ().
Vancouver Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, and Thabani NYONI. OPEN DEFECATION IN NIGERIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2020 [Cited : ]; 6(4) : 577-586. Available from: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/OPEN_DEFECATION_IN_NIGERIA__A_BOX_JENKINS_ARIMA_APPROACH_ijariie12290_converted.pdf
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