Call for Papers:Vol.12 Issue.2

Submission
Last date		 28-Apr-2026
Acceptance Status In One Day
Paper Publish In Two Days
Submit ManuScript

News & Updates

Submit Article

Dear Authors, Article publish in our journal for Volume-12,Issue-2. For article submission on below link: Submit Manuscript


Join As Board

Dear Reviewer, You can join our Reviewer team without given any charges in our journal. Submit Details on below link: Join As Board


Paper Publication Charges

IJARIIE APP
Download Android App

For Authors

Archives

IJARIIE Board

Downloads

Android App

Download IJARIIE APP

Authors

Title: :  Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis
PaperId: :  28306
Published in:   International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education
Publisher:   IJARIIE
e-ISSN:   2395-4396
Volume/Issue:    Volume 12 Issue 2 2026
DUI:    16.0415/IJARIIE-28306
Licence: :   IJARIIE is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Author NameAuthor Institute
KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDEKampala International University, Uganda
BASAKE JULIUSKampala International University, Uganda
LEKIA NKPORDEEKampala International University, Uganda

Abstract

Mathematics
Poverty Exit, Parish Development Model, Moment Generating Functions, Survival analysis, Policy simulation
Poverty remains persistently high in Uganda despite ongoing policy interventions, with many rural households still dependent on low productivity subsistence agriculture, limiting sustainable economic transition. The Parish Development Model (PDM) was introduced as a decentralized financial inclusion strategy aimed at accelerating household level poverty exit through structured credit delivery. This study simulates poverty exit dynamics under the PDM using a distribution sensitive framework that integrates Moment Generating Functions, Probability Generating Functions, and survival analysis within a policy simulation design. Poverty exit is modeled as a Bernoulli process across loan cycles, where each cycle represents a two-year repayment period under standardized loan conditions. The analysis uses regional administrative data and policy parameters rather than household survey data to estimate expected poverty exit time, variability, and risk adjusted outcomes across Uganda’s statistical regions. Results from the simulation indicate a baseline exit probability of 0.25 per loan cycle, corresponding to an average of four cycles or approximately eight years for poverty exit under normal conditions. However, substantial regional variation is observed, with higher exit times in regions exposed to greater agricultural and demographic pressure. Incorporating agricultural risks such as rainfall variability, pest outbreaks, and market shocks reduces effective exit probabilities and increases both mean exit time and variance, extending poverty duration beyond thirteen years in high-risk scenarios. Sensitivity analysis further shows that small improvements in exit probability significantly reduce poverty duration, while increases in risk intensity produce nonlinear deterioration in outcomes. The study concludes that poverty exit under the PDM is distribution dependent and highly sensitive to structural and environmental conditions. The proposed framework provides policymakers with a quantitative tool for evaluating loan design, regional targeting, and risk mitigation strategies under uncertainty.

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the links to import into a bibliography manager and reference.

IJARIIE KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. "Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis" International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education Volume 12 Issue 2 2026 Page 1271-1290
MLA KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. "Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 12.2(2026) : 1271-1290.
APA KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, & LEKIA NKPORDEE. (2026). Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 12(2), 1271-1290.
Chicago KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. "Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education 12, no. 2 (2026) : 1271-1290.
Oxford KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. 'Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 12, no. 2, 2026, p. 1271-1290. Available from IJARIIE, http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Distribution_Sensitive_Modeling_of_Poverty_Exit_Dynamics_under_Uganda’s_Parish_Development_Model__A_Simulation_Approach_Using_MGFs__PGFs__and_Survival_Analysis_ijariie28306.pdf (Accessed : 19 April 2026).
Harvard KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. (2026) 'Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis', International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, 12(2), pp. 1271-1290IJARIIE [Online]. Available at: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Distribution_Sensitive_Modeling_of_Poverty_Exit_Dynamics_under_Uganda’s_Parish_Development_Model__A_Simulation_Approach_Using_MGFs__PGFs__and_Survival_Analysis_ijariie28306.pdf (Accessed : 19 April 2026)
IEEE KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE, "Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis," International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 1271-1290, Mar-App 2026. [Online]. Available: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Distribution_Sensitive_Modeling_of_Poverty_Exit_Dynamics_under_Uganda’s_Parish_Development_Model__A_Simulation_Approach_Using_MGFs__PGFs__and_Survival_Analysis_ijariie28306.pdf [Accessed : 19 April 2026].
Turabian KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. "Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis." International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Online]. volume 12 number 2 (19 April 2026).
Vancouver KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE, BASAKE JULIUS, and LEKIA NKPORDEE. Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival Analysis. International Journal Of Advance Research And Innovative Ideas In Education [Internet]. 2026 [Cited : 19 April 2026]; 12(2) : 1271-1290. Available from: http://ijariie.com/AdminUploadPdf/Distribution_Sensitive_Modeling_of_Poverty_Exit_Dynamics_under_Uganda’s_Parish_Development_Model__A_Simulation_Approach_Using_MGFs__PGFs__and_Survival_Analysis_ijariie28306.pdf
BibTex EndNote RefMan RefWorks

Number Of Downloads


Last download on 4/19/2026 6:08:08 AM

Save in Google Drive

Similar-Paper

TitleArea of ResearchAuther NameAction
Distribution Sensitive Modeling of Poverty Exit Dynamics under Uganda’s Parish Development Model: A Simulation Approach Using MGFs, PGFs, and Survival AnalysisMathematics KIWANUKA JOSEPH. KAKANDE Download
Mathematical Finance: From Models to Risk Management and Applicationscomputer EnggineeringPathare Dipak Vijay Download
Role of Mathematics in Theory of RelativityMathematics Ms .Tejal Anil Mhase Download
Study of the Application of Statistics in EducationMathematics & StatisticsAshwini Vishal Aher Download
Multiplication Fact Recall to Improve Math Performance in MultiplicationMathematicsMaria Gladys B. Akyatan Download
INDIAN KNOWLEDGE SYSTEM AND ANCIENT MATHEMATICSMATHEMATICS KAMAL KISHOR Download
Applications and Dynamics of Derivative in science and technologyApplied mathematicesMr. Pathare Dipak Vijay Download
Basic Concept of Mathematical ModelingApplied mathematicesDhanawanti N. Kalokhe. Download
Role of Technology in Enhancing Learning Outcomes in MathematicsEducation – Mathematics Education / Educational TechnologyNoelyn C. Gegremosa Download
Effect of Bar Model Instruction on Students' Performance in Solving Percentage-related ProblemsMathematics TeachingJuvielle V. Hermoso Download
ENHANCING MATHEMATICS PERFORMANCE AND PERCEPTION THROUGH CODE SWITCHING INSTRUCTION: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL APPROACHMathematicsHermie Joy B. Sanchez Download
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SCHOOL CLIMATE: THEIR IMPACT ON JOB SATISFACTION AMONG PUBLIC MATHEMATICS TEACHERSEducationJessiejem Conejos Celis Download
AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF FORMATIVE ASSESSMENTS ON STUDENTS’ MASTERY OF MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS AND SKILLSEducationJenie Lou S. Pagayon; Romulo G. Doronio, PhD Download
EXPLORING GRADE 8 STE (SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING) STUDENTS' EXPERIENCES WITH KHAN ACADEMY: PERCEPTIONS, ENGAGEMENT, AND CHALLENGES IN MATHEMATICS EDUCATIONMathematics EducationMichelle R. Alipao Download
B-Boundary in Pythagorean Neutrosophic FuzzyMathematicsAmeerah Abu Surrah Download
12